Oct
9
2020 Census Errors Could Negatively Impact Red States
We have been seeing a lot of articles in recent weeks about the lead-up to the November midterm elections. Though you might not see it reflected in the MSM, other media have been predicting a “red wave” in various elections for federal, state, and local offices. Some battles are quite hot! The U.S. Senate races are of particular interest, since that body is now a 50/50 split between Democrats (inc. 2 Independents caucusing with Dems) and Republicans, with the Democrat Vice President breaking any ties. But, the article that caught my attention was about something that may cause another problem for the GOP for the next decade or so….
Despite warnings by a senior advisor (and others) that something like this might happen, the U.S. Census Bureau has now admitted that the 2020 census may have “undercounted the population of Arkansas by 5.04%; Tennessee by 4.78%; Mississippi by 4.11%; Florida by 3.48%; Illinois by 1.97%; and Texas by 1.92%, according to the Post-Enumeration Survey.” Notice anything in common about those states? Except for Illinois (which is Purple, thanks to a big Blue island surrounding Chicago), they are all Red.
As if that weren’t bad enough, it “overcounted the population of eight states: Hawaii by 6.79%; Delaware by 5.45%; Rhode Island by 5.05%; Minnesota by 3.84%, New York by 3.44%; Utah by 2.59%; Massachusetts by 2.24%; and Ohio by 1.49%.” Notice anything in common about those states? Except for Ohio (which is firmly Red), they are all Blue or a strongly Blue-leaning Purple.
How this all happened involves the Red-vs-Blue state rates of census form completion, the impact of COVID-19 lockdowns, estimates made to correct for this, and the fact that “the 2020 census counted the total population by creating an independent estimate of the number living in the U.S. since April 2020.”
The Census Bureau insists that the PES numbers are “not definitive” and assures us that it will neither affect allocation of federal funds nor of House seats. (As far as I know, they say nothing about the Electoral College.) I’m not entirely buying it, though, since the census numbers are a crucial factor in determining those allocations.
“Critics contend that this inaccurate count now favors blue states over red states in determining Electoral College votes and seats in the House of Representatives for the next decade.”
Hans von Spakovsky, a senior fellow at The Heritage Foundation, observes that based on the reported 2020 overcounts and undercounts, for example, “Florida lost out on two additional seats it should have gotten in the House and two Electoral College votes,” while “Texas lost one House seat.” (Note: An April 2021 article by PJMedia said that Florida would be gaining one House seat and Texas two.)
Not only does the Census Bureau not explain how and why these statistically significant errors occurred (assuming the PES is accurate, of course), it fails to acknowledge that these overcounts and undercounts are predominantly to the potential benefit of Democrats. (Sorta like certain voting anomalies during the last couple elections.) They are also a heckuva lot bigger than the “statistically insignificant national overcount of 36,000 Americans” (or ~0.01%) in the 2010 census.
And, by the way, there is no legal remedy to fix the count. Adam Korzeniewski, the aforementioned advisor, says there still need to be serious, bipartisan congressional hearings on the matter. The problem is in getting anyone from either side interested enough to do so.
I’m not sure why more people haven’t expressed concern about this — at least, among conservatives. Maybe it is totally legit and maybe it is nothing to be alarmed about. Maybe my ignorance is showing. But, it definitely concerns me.
