Jul
13
Trump Continues to Defy the “Experts”
“The first six months of the Donald Trump administration have not been kind to the experts and the degree-holding classes.” — Victor Davis Hanson
I initially became aware of Victor Davis Hanson roughly 20 years ago when he occasionally guested on a radio show I listened to back then — iirc, it was the Hugh Hewitt Show. Hanson was a classicist and military historian at the U.S. Naval Academy at the time, and he impressed me as being quite knowledgeable and insightful. Nowadays, he is (among other things) a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution, a visiting professor at Hillsdale College, and a senior contributor for The Daily Signal. In short, imho, Hanson is someone well worth listening to.
In an article earlier this month, Hanson looked briefly at a few of the major issues addressed so far by the Trump Administration, what the major pollsters and other “experts” said would happen if Trump proceeded as intended or expected, then what actually happened. I have reproduced excerpts below for your consideration…
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So, the result of Trump’s foolhardy tariff talk would be an impending recession. America would soon suffer rising joblessness, inflation — or rather a return to stagflation — and likely little, if any, increase in tariff revenue as trade volume declined.
Instead, recent data show increases in tariff revenue. Personal real income and savings were up. Job creation exceeded prognoses. There was no surge in inflation. The supposedly “crashed” stock market reached historic highs….
When Trump promised that he would ensure that, instead of 10,000 foreign nationals entering illegally each day, within a month, no one would, our experts scoffed. But if the border patrol went from ignoring or even aiding illegal immigrants to stopping them right at the border, why would such a prediction be wrong?
Those favoring a reduction in illegal immigration and deportations also argued that crime would fall, and citizen job opportunities would increase, given an estimated 500,000 aliens with criminal records had entered illegally during the Biden administration, while millions of other illegal aliens were working off the books, for cash, and often at reduced wages.
Indeed, once the border was closed tightly, hundreds of thousands were returned to their country, and employers began turning to U.S. citizens. Job opportunities did increase. Crime did go down. Legal-only immigration regained its preferred status over illegal entry….
Many of our national security experts warned that taking out Iran’s nuclear sites was a fool’s errand. It would supposedly unleash a Middle East tsunami of instability. It would cause a wave of terrorism. It would send oil prices skyrocketing. It would not work, ensuring Iran would soon reply with nuclear weapons.
In fact, oil prices decreased after the American bombing. A 25-minute entrance into Iranian airspace and bombing led to a ceasefire, not a conflagration.
As for a big power standoff, World War III, and 30,000 dead, common sense asked why China would wish the Strait of Hormuz to close, given that it imports half of all Middle Eastern oil produced? Why would Russia — bogged down in Ukraine and suffering nearly a million casualties — wish to mix it up in Iran, after ignominiously fleeing Syria and the fall of its Assad clients?
Russia usually thinks of Russia, period. It does not lament when tensions elsewhere are expected to spike oil prices….
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Interesting points, and that’s just part of it. Hanson also speculates on why the “experts” have been getting it so wrong. I highly recommend that you read Hanson’s full article.
