Jan
15

Pros and Cons of DeSantis 2024

“2024 is the whole enchilada, and it is too important to play it by ear. We must be strategic, and we must select the candidate most likely to win in the general. That means assessing both good points and bad points. And we must undertake the process for Donald Trump as well as his number one competitor.” — Kurt Schlichter, trial lawyer/writer/commentator (emphasis mine)

As you might remember, last week I posted my “Pros and Cons of Trump 2024”, summarizing Kurt Schlichter’s points from last June. Schlichter wrote a similar pair of articles regarding Gov. Ron DeSantis’s potential run for U.S. President in 2024, so I’m giving it/them the same treatment.

Pros

1) Ron DeSantis is Trump’s “number one competitor” due to his greatest strength –- competence. Competence in three areas: governing Florida with skill and wisdom, turning it from purple to red, and “annihilating the competition”. Along with this is the belief that DeSantis can bring the nation back to pre-2000 “normality” — without war, without wokeness, and with sane economic policies. If elected, he can do the job.

2) He is a fighter, a “political honey-badger”, who “understands that we are in the midst of an existential cultural/political struggle…. The bad guys are serious about winning, and so is Ron DeSantis.”

3) DeSantis is a solid candidate with a solid resume, personally inoffensive, a very good speaker, appropriately ruthless, thick-skinned, and has a good sense of humor. He pulls in big donors and gets the votes — including across political and ethnic lines. Plus, the GOP base likes him, and more will come around as they pay attention.

4) He is very disciplined. He typically ignores or shakes off taunts directed at him. “He just keeps moving forward, building the best political team in the business, and demanding performance. If he runs, you will find out when he is good and ready and when the announcement will have the maximum impact.”

Cons

For many (especially here in FL), it is hard to find negatives about DeSantis. But, as Schlichter points out,

“For our purposes, his objective goodness is irrelevant. We are not going to be asked to elect him buddy or nice guy or whatever…. This is really about electability, whether or not he can get the voters to put an X by his name in numbers greater than those for [the opposition]. The case against DeSantis is really the case against him winning the general election. And there is a case to be made for that.”

1) Outside of Florida (and Twitter), DeSantis is still relatively unknown.

2) What is his path in the general? Will “competent and conservative” work (as with Kemp and Youngkin)? Or, will he need to go “based and belligerent” (a la Trump)? Can he generate giant rallies, to the extent they matter? He’s no Trump, but will that work as a positive or a negative?

3) DeSantis will have to show some fire. He’s no mean-tweeter. When he fights, his fighting is disciplined and targeted, and he wins. But, if he leans into his “based and belligerent” side, he may not be able to get/keep former Republicans who left the party ‘cuz they didn’t like “Trump’s in-your-face vibe”.

4) How will he win the battleground states? What’s his plan? How will he even fare outside of Florida? Will he have the same sort of crossover appeal? Perhaps most importantly, can he get enough died-in=the-wool Trumpophiles on board?

5) He just won re-election in Florida, and some think he needs to stick around as governor!

6) For some, “it is not yet DeSantis’s ‘turn’. But, maybe he could be Trump’s VP, then run for Prez in 2028…” (But, as Schlichter points out, even if you buy into the waiting-his-turn thing, why would DeSantis want to hitch his horse to the ‘problematic’ Trump?”)

7) Some of the politicos allegedly supporting him are problematic — e.g., RINOs, squishes, and various species of establishment folk. Their reasons for giving DeSantis a thumbs-up may vary, and they may not stick around through the election. Regardless, the “optics” are bad.

8) He cannot unify the GOP. There are a number of Trump fans who, for whatever reasons (including those already mentioned), are convinced that Trump is the only deserving candidate. “Can DeSantis show that the people he loses by not being Trump are going to be outnumbered by the people he gains by not being Trump?”

9) Unlike Trump, DeSantis has not proven himself nationally. On the other hand, most(?) presidential candidates are running in their first national election, and lots of them win (e.g., Trump 2016). “The way for DeSantis to refute the case against him is to show exactly how he intends to do so in 2024.”

Just like with the Trump assessment, a fair amount of time has passed since Schlichter’s articles came out. (Less than two months this time, though, rather than 6+ months.) So, there have been further statements and actions taken by DeSantis in the meantime that should be taken into consideration, and there will be plenty more between now and the 2024 election. But, the factors listed in the above rundown do give a pretty good starting place when considering whether or not DeSantis would be the best GOP candidate.