Apr
29
Glimpsing the Future with Newt
“The future is going to be amazing, and we should be optimistic that as a free people we can lead the world into that future – just as we led the world with new developments in cars, airplanes, computers and the Internet.” — Newt Gingrich, former Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives and unabashed technophile
Last week, I wrote on a somewhat negative topic, something that is annoying at best and, when taken in conjunction with other cultural trends, possibly cause for alarm. This week, I decided to address something rather exciting and generally quite positive. Specifically, I’d like to take a look at a couple recent opinion pieces from former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich.
As you may know, Gingrich has long been a fan of technology and its uses in making people’s lives easier, in business and government (e.g., to reduce bureaucracy) and on a personal level. He is always on the lookout for “breakthroughs that will dramatically change our way of doing things,” and he often writes on tech topics that range from space travel and tele-medicine to quantum computing and fracking. Remember his Breakout book? Over the years, he has gotten to know and work with a few pioneers (e.g., futurists Alvin and Heidi Toffler), and even now his influence and contacts afford him opportunities to speak with scientists and engineers and to see what they are developing.
Just last month, Gingrich visited with Dr. Kiron Skinner at Carnegie Mellon University in Pittsburgh, and he was amazed by what he saw.
“I saw a voice analysis system that could be combined with cellphone technology to enable remote medical analysis of virtually everyone on the planet. It would create an extraordinary new approach to early diagnostics and constant monitoring at an astonishingly low cost.
I watched a robotic assistant reduce the invasiveness of heart surgery so that instead of patients taking 14 days to recover, they could leave the hospital after one day.
And the potential for 3-D printing and robotics, combined with reusable rockets, will totally change how we think about space. This is just astonishing.
Every aspect of government procurement will have to be replaced (not just reformed – replaced) given the speed of new capabilities inherent in the artificial intelligence revolution.”
The possibilities are indeed amazing, but Gingrich is aware of other social impacts, as well.
“We will also have to rethink adult education.
Artificial intelligence will displace many traditional service jobs, while also creating new jobs. The challenge will be helping adults make the transition from outdated skills to the new, higher-paying and more interesting skills made possible by artificial intelligence.
Of course, during this development, we must constantly work to improve these systems to make sure they are safe. This constant development in itself will require advancements in both human and machine learning….
It is also clear that we have to invest heavily in artificial intelligence if we are going to maintain our competitive and national security advantages in the face of massive Chinese investment in the artificial intelligence field….”
The other day, Gingrich expanded on a couple of the above ideas, after observing two historic events. First was the confirmation of Rep. Jim Bridenstine (R-OK) as the new Director of NASA. Next came V.P. Mike Pence’s articulation of the Trump administration’s “bold vision for America’s future in space exploration” at the Space Foundation’s 34th Annual Space Symposium in Colorado.
“[W]e stand at the dawn of a new era of human activity in space; a turning point that will bring new opportunities and new challenges.” — Vice President Mike Pence
Gingrich is much encouraged by this vision and commitment, and he has some “bold goals” he thinks we need to work toward:
“By the end of 2024, a very large American spacecraft should be on its way to Mars. We should have a working base on the moon that’s producing rocket fuel from ice. The first asteroid mining project should be returning valuable minerals to the United States (thus rendering obsolete the Chinese effort to corner the supply of rare minerals on Earth).
Between Earth and the moon, there should be multiple low-orbit systems assembling enormous structures and supporting commercial manufacturing, tourism and other industries in space. If we achieve this before any other country, the United States will have undisputed economic superiority for decades.
At the same time, execution of this seemingly fantastic concept would leapfrog our national defense capabilities far into the 21st century. Having a squadron of reusable rockets (effectively a Mach 25 Air Force) would allow U.S. forces to overfly and outfly the myriad of foreign air and space weapons proliferating today.
This would also allow us to have “eyes, ears, and presence” anywhere in the world in under an hour, while also protecting the peace in the global commons of space.”
This all sounds great, but is it realistic? Gingrich writes about three technological and entrepreneurial revolutions that can make it happen. I hesitate to cite it all, so I will give highlights and urge you to check out the linked article for more details.
1) “[T]he advent of reusable rockets is going to lead to a crash in costs and a dramatic increase in frequency of launches.” He talks about both heavy commercial flights, as well as “reusable military rockets – “space planes” – using these same technologies and updated with reusable upper stages…. None of this takes into account SpaceX’s planned Big Falcon Rocket (BFR), which may be available for crew and cargo missions by 2024. If it starts flying by then, it will be so cheap, the cost compared to NASA’s Space Launch System (SLS) will become absurd.”
2) “The second technological revolution underway is in 3-D printing, robotics, and autonomous assembly…. If the collapse in cost of the reusable rockets is combined with the development of these autonomous distance capabilities, the potential exists for a totally new approach to space. Instead of designing very small capsules modeled on the Apollo program, we can begin to imagine robotically printing and assembling very large facilities in space. We can combine that with a refueling capability from launching specialized tanker ships and by mining the moon for water and turning it into fuel at one-sixth Earth’s gravity.”
3) “Third, beyond the immediate capabilities, there are breakthroughs in artificial intelligence and nanoscale science and technology, which will be coming into practical use long before 2024…. Given the rate of new innovations we are seeing, the pattern of greater capability at lower cost will continue to accelerate.”
But, in order to take advantage of all of this, we — i.e., primarily the federal government, but also related businesses and organizations — must begin planning with the “breakout framework” in mind, rather than assuming the current status quo. “Several long-existing bureaucratic programs should be cannibalized, so their money can be transferred to new, higher-value projects.” This means that NASA and the Defense Dept. need to realize that “most of the breakthroughs will come from small entrepreneurial companies that are not part of the traditional lobbyist-heavy, technologically slow, big company model we’ve relied on for the past few decades.” At the same time, laws need to be passed that incentivize “investment and a real competitive alliance between billionaires willing to invest in space.” That’s the only real way to fund such ventures.
Gingrich notes that Donald Trump has a record of cutting through bureaucracies and applying common sense to accomplish projects “in record time and for a very low cost” when the government couldn’t. That’s what we need to see here.
“As a last observation, we cannot forget that this is a national security race with China for the industrialization of space. The winner will secure economic and military might for the next 100 years…. It is vital that Americans – as a free people – focus our energy and resources toward leading the human race into space within the framework of freedom and the rule of law.
If America fails to capitalize on this opportunity and concedes space to other countries, we will likely see our own century of humiliation. Instead, we should follow the vice president’s words and have ‘the courage to dream bigger, the determination to work harder, the confidence to push farther than the trailblazers who showed us the way, (and) meet the future that awaits.'”
I admit, I have reservations about whether or not all of the above can be accomplished (let alone by 2024) in the current political climate, both international and domestic. But, Gingrich makes some great observations and recommendations, such that I think it may just be possible — assuming, of course, that Trump follows Gingrich’s advice, moving forward immediately, and that they don’t meet insurmountable obstruction from political and/or bureaucratic adversaries.
It’s much easier for the visionary to see what’s possible than it is to convince the gatekeepers and petty tyrants to move forward or get out of the way.
