May
6
Backing Out of the Iran Deal
“People know my views on the Iran deal. It was a terrible deal. It should have never ever been made. It’s insane. It’s ridiculous.” — President Donald Trump
When the leaders of the United States, United Kingdom, Germany, France, Russia, and China signed onto the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in July 2015, many people around the world shook their heads. As per the Wikipedia summary:
U.S. President Donald Trump and Iranian President Hassan Rouhani
“Under the agreement, Iran agreed to eliminate its stockpile of medium-enriched uranium, cut its stockpile of low-enriched uranium by 98%, and reduce by about two-thirds the number of its gas centrifuges for 13 years. For the next 15 years, Iran will only enrich uranium up to 3.67%. Iran also agreed not to build any new heavy-water facilities for the same period of time. Uranium-enrichment activities will be limited to a single facility using first-generation centrifuges for 10 years. Other facilities will be converted to avoid proliferation risks. To monitor and verify Iran’s compliance with the agreement, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) will have regular access to all Iranian nuclear facilities. The agreement provides that in return for verifiably abiding by its commitments, Iran will receive relief from U.S., European Union, and United Nations Security Council nuclear-related economic sanctions.”
But, as Austin Bay writes, this “Iran Deal” was not only grossly misguided and irresponsible but rather shaky when it comes to its constitutional enforceability on the U.S. side.
“Obama’s Disjointed Non-Comprehensive Fake Deal has produced: an Iranian dictatorship with global ideological pretentions that has the cash to seed terror, topple fragile states, build long-range ballistic missiles, operate criminal-terror networks around the world and — on the sly — continue to pursue nuclear weapons. [italics mine]
‘Spineless’ is a critical description, and the JCPOA’s spinelessness is multidimensional. The Senate never ratified the JCPOA per the U.S. Constitution, so it is not a treaty. Since it is not a treaty, the JCPOA lacks sustaining domestic political spine. Major flaw? Yes. It means the JCPOA amounts to little more than Obama administration verbal vaporware.
In 2015, the ayatollahs lived in [a] world of increasing domestic opposition, corruption and crimped finances. Obama’s “deal” immediately rewarded the corrupted and crimped ayatollahs with billions of dollars in cash and sanctions relief. Follow the timeline and it appears Tehran’s bad guys got cash before the agreement was officially concluded.”
Disgusting!
But, it gets worse. It seems that — surprise, surprise — Iran lied (and continued lying) about having, or ever having had, a nuclear weapons program. Funny thing is, I thought I remembered this being discovered years ago. (Maybe this is what I was thinking of?) In any case, Israel’s Mossad spies have now infiltrated Iran’s secret project, confiscating over 100,000 documents from a secret storage facility in Tehran and revealing that “the regime not only developed [a nuclear program], but had plans to put five Hiroshima sized warheads on ballistic missiles.”
In short, Iran has continued developing related technology while waiting to resume the nuclear bomb-making as soon as the restrictions on uranium-enrichment activities begin to relax in seven years. Despite his earlier public assurances, President Obama admitted on NPR (April 2015) that even his then deal-in-the-making would likely only postpone Iran’s going nuclear for 13-15 years.
Townhall’s Guy Benson noted the following re the new discovery:
“According to Barak Ravid, an Israeli journalist, his senior source added: ‘The documents tell us more details than the IAEA knew until today about the Iranian nuclear program. The documents will be a very strong proof that there was a military nuclear program in Iran. Such proof that the Iranians will not be able to deny.’ To reiterate a key point in all of this, the Iran deal was not allowed to go into effect until and unless the regime in Tehran was totally transparent about its past nuclear activities. Rather than telling the truth, Iran lied again, denying the existence of an illegal nuclear weapons program that their own no-longer-secret documents confirm.”
Condoleezza Rice
As he must do every 90 days, President Trump has to decide by May 12 whether or not the U.S. will renew its commitment to the “Iran Deal”. Our European allies have tried to convince him to stick with it and work with them to fix a few weaknesses (e.g., re the sunset provision, terrorism, and Iran’s destabilization of the region). Seems to me, though, that the Israelis have a much stronger argument for Trump to back the U.S. out of the deal. (And thanks to the way it was implemented without ratification by the Senate, he can do so unilaterally.) After all, the agreement was founded on lies (as many suspected from the get-go).
Even before Netanyahu’s presentation to the world, Iran’s leaders were making veiled threats should the U.S. not renew.
“Ali Akbar Salehi, head of Iran’s atomic work, claimed Iran could enrich uranium to 20 percent, which is more than enough to quickly reach the threshold to power a nuclear weapon, in just four days if the word is given by Iran’s hardline ruling regime.”
Trump responded,
“If they restart their nuclear program they will have bigger problems than they ever had before.”
Some pundits and politicians (mostly from the Left) say this would be terrible and dangerous for Trump to walk away from the agreement. On the other hand, the very sharp, former National Security Advisor and Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice thinks they’re overreacting.
“I actually think if we pull out now, it’s not going to be the disaster that everyone’s talking about. I would not have signed this deal. I don’t think it was a good deal and that we were in a hurry to get a deal. [But, if] we get out of this deal, it will be just fine.”
I, for one, am inclined to agree with Rice and think Trump should indeed walk away. It should now — or, at least, quite soon — be apparent to even the doubters that Iran was never faithful to the agreement from the beginning, and there are clear grounds for Germany, France, the UK, Russia, and China to all back out, as well. They should rip up the JCPOA and start over. However, even if our European allies can be convinced, I’m not so sure about Russia and China. They have their own agendas and probably continue to do business with Iran as it is.
With Trump leading the charge, and hopefully with some support from our closest friends in Europe, I am hopeful that a more workable agreement — with stronger sanctions and minus the flaws of the current “deal” — can be negotiated and with even stronger international backing. That said, cooperation from Russia and/or China may be crucial for success.
UPDATE 5/8/2018: “BREAKING: It’s Official, President Trump Pulls U.S. Out of the Iran Nuclear Deal”
