Nov
11
Winners and Losers from the 2018 Midterms
Some of you might remember a brief post I shared last year from Tim Dukeman, a politically-astute fellow (and fellow Christian) who often posts on Facebook. Tim took a short hiatus from FB but returned (with newborn child in tow) just in time to offer commentary on the recent midterm elections. On 11/7, he wrote a couple “summary” posts that I found helpful, and he said I could share them with my readers….
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Winners from the 2018 Midterms
Preborn Children:
With Republicans gaining 4 Senate seats, the most important branch of government (the Judiciary, of course) will continue to be fed a steady stream of actual judges (instead of getting legislators who wear robes). Republicans can now confirm judges without having to get any pro abortion Senators to sign on. This is great news for the preborn children whose lives *literally* hang in the balance.
Brett Kavanaugh:
Kavanaugh was the difference in almost all of the key Senate races. Before the Kavanaugh Lynching, Democrat control of the Senate was a live possibility. After Kavanaugh stood up to the Witch Hunt, it was only a question of how many seats Republicans would gain. If Trump gets another Supreme Court opening, Kavanaugh’s legend will only grow, since Republicans elected last night will still be in the Senate.
President Trump:
Despite suffering a severe setback in Florida (see my Losers post), Trump is basically guaranteed not to draw a primary challenger, and his reputation received a bump from Republicans’ performance. He lost a normal amount of seats in the House, and gained 4 or 5 seats in the Senate. Give credit where it’s due: Trump delivered in a tough environment.
The Media:
The Opposition Party flexed their muscles in this election, especially in terms of influencing candidate choices. Specifically, the Democrat Media convinced dozens of Republicans to retire, even though many of them were facing winnable races. This proved to be one of the most important factors in Democrats taking the House. Media Intimidation has never been a more significant factor in American politics. Expect a lot more of it.
Pollsters:
After 2016, people who didn’t read polls carefully went around screaming that the polls are never reliable. But last night’s results validated nearly all the polls. Democrats comfortably took over the House, and Republicans kept the Senate. The only real exceptions were in Indiana and Missouri, where Democrats who were expected to win narrowly ended up losing convincingly. But pollsters are patting themselves on the back today, and deservedly so. [Ed. Note: Well, maybe not *all* pollsters.]
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He makes some pretty good points, right? Now for the other guys…
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Losers from the 2018 Midterms
Republican Presidential candidates (including Trump), and any other Republican who wants to win a statewide race in Florida:
In a testament to the media’s incompetence, the biggest political earthquake of the night is scarcely being covered at all. Florida Amendment 4, a ballot initiative, probably put the state out of reach for future Republican statewide candidates. Amendment 4 gives voting rights to convicted felons, and convicted felons almost always vote Democrat. Democrats only need about 15% felon turnout to overcome the 100,000-vote margin of their recent election losses. They’ll probably do better than that. This is an unmitigated disaster for conservatives, since future Presidential elections can only be won by the narrowest of margins without Florida. Trump’s re-election chances took a serious blow last night, likely dropping under 50%. If you think I’m overstating the significance here, consider that Virginia was a purple state until they let felons vote.
[Ed. Note: To be honest, I went back and forth on this one but eventually voted against it. I might be persuaded otherwise. But, if Tim’s numbers and reasoning are correct re Florida, then this is indeed scary. As someone reminded Tim (and he acknowledged), this amendment only applies to non-violent felons — or, more specifically, does not apply to convicted murderers and sexual offenders. So, there’s that.]
Red State Democrats who voted against Kavanaugh:
They all lost, even the ones who were supposed to be safe. The biggest surprise of the night in the Senate has to be Jon Tester very nearly losing in Montana, a race he had been leading by a comfortable margin in the polls. Donnelly, Heitkamp, and McCaskill all lost as well. Joe Manchin kept his seat by a narrow margin, and he voted for Kavanaugh. Kavanaugh very clearly changed the game in the Senate.
Sunny Republican House Prognosticators:
There was a vocal contingent of Republicans insisting that the House losses would be in the single digits. With Democrats on track to gain 35 or even 40 (!) seats in the House, they look pretty silly.
Sunny Democrat Senate Prognosticators:
Republicans will gain either 3, 4, or 5 Senate seats when it’s all said and done (5 appears the most likely, based on current numbers). In a year when Democrats were supposed to be flipping TN and TX, they couldn’t even hold onto a seat with a multiple term incumbent in Florida. The Senate was never even in play after Kavanaugh, and people who said so have egg on their faces.
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I always appreciate Tim’s insights and concise summaries. (I suppose it helps that he earned a Master’s in Political Science before beginning his MDiv studies.) What do you think?
P.S. If you’re on Facebook and interested in political discussions, you should follow Tim.
P.P.S. For a few more observations/opinions, check out Ben Shapiro’s “8 Big Takeaways From The Midterm Elections”.
