Nov
8
Significant Downward Trend in LGBT Identification
“Trans identification is in freefall. (And) non-conforming sexual identity is also in sharp decline.” — professor/author Eric Kaufmann
Not long ago, I came across some surprising (to some) information that has been garnering attention across the board, from the Manhattan Institute to LGBTQ Nation — namely, that “the number of young people identifying as LGBT is now in decline.” Maybe you saw something about it but have yet to look into it? I have quoted the core of the research finding below, as reported in a Colson Center commentary/article by John Stonestreet and Dr. Timothy D. Padgett.
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[A]t the end of September, [psychologist] Dr. Jean Twenge confirmed that not only has there been a shift in younger Americans identifying as LGBT, but that the largest declines are among younger teenage cohorts. As Twenge put it, “(T)he headline result is for 9th graders (14 and 15 years old): Identifying as LGB absolutely plummets between 2023 and 2025, from 17% to 11%.” Also, the largest decline has been among younger teenage girls, the group that had experienced the largest increase in LGBT identification between 2015 and 2021.
The most likely explanation for the significant change is that the high level of identification in previous years was the result of a social contagion that was brought on by, among other things, Covid isolation and the attending upsurge in social media interactions. Clearly, the growth in LGBT identification was not a naturally occurring event.
This was always obvious, of course. In the early 2010s, we were still critiquing the Kinsey Report claim that 10% of people were gay and lesbian. In the decade that followed, that number ballooned as quickly as new letters could be added to the ever-growing acronym of sexual identifications. School teachers and youth pastors were reporting that all of their students identified as LGBT because, as one told me, “no one wants to be cis or straight anymore.” Clearly, for younger Americans, the novelty of being gay, bi, nonbinary, and trans is wearing off.
At the same time, as Twenge discussed in a Substack post a week earlier, the numbers have not moved significantly among older Americans, especially millennial women. This means that young people will continue [to] be taught and influenced by adults who remain convinced that it’s their sacred duty to promote LGBT identification and lifestyles…. [I]t will be hard for “allies” to claim that the early 2020s upsurge in LGBT identification was a naturally occurring phenomenon of students “being true to themselves.” Biological reality has always been on the side of truth [and we must] be on the side of truth also.
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I am not well-versed in the relevant studies, claims, etc. So, while I tend to agree with Stonestreet and Padgett, I will refrain from further comment, argument, or speculation. If you choose to comment below, please keep it civil. Thanks.
To read the full article by Stonestreet and Padgett, including links to supporting articles, go here.
